Up to 45,000 South Africans are expected to die from Covid-19 over the next two to three years, says one of the eminent doctors advising President Cyril Ramaphosa.
This is a shocking number, but it is much lower than an earlier estimate of between 120,000 and 150,000 fatalities.
Also, we should prepare ourselves for waves of the epidemic over that period and accept that intermittent lockdowns will become part of life.
“We are not returning to normal for the next two to three years,” said Prof Shabir Madhi, of Wits University, who heads the public health subcommittee advising Ramaphosa and his cabinet.
In a webinar on Tuesday, Madhi said new information showed that between 50 and 80 times more people are infected than we thought, but they are asymptomatic. This, in turn, showed that the mortality rate would be lower than expected.
“The only information we had in the early days from China was that a vast majority would be symptomatic,” Madhi said.
“Based on that modelling, we felt at least 120,000 would die in SA because of Covid-19.”
Since then, studies in the US, China and Iceland have shown that at least 50% of infected people are asymptomatic and that “changes the numbers completely”.
Madhi said the estimate of between 120,000 and 150,000 deaths has been revised to 45,000, “a huge jump down”.
He added: “This is not necessarily going to take place in a single wave but more likely in several waves.
“We can’t go into perpetual periods of lockdown [but] the reality is that this is going to cause many epidemics at least for the next two to three years.”
Mass gatherings would not come back, physical distancing would stay, and the “way we engage with people will require caution”.
By Tanya Farber – DispatchLive
